[disgruntledphd2]

I strongly encourage you to visit Northern Ireland and talk to people (even just see the peace walls) as this is far more like the 18th century than it is like the 21st (in the sense that religion/ethnicity/history is the predominant driving force behind voting patterns).

[Aromasin]

Don't make assumptions; I'm well aware. I was deployed to an RAF station there for a number of months, my fathers side of the family are all passionate Catholic Irish republicans, and my mother all served in NI during the Troubles in the British Army. I know the history intimately through them, and years of studying the conflict within officer branch of the RAF.

I do truly believe that Brexit has fundamentally and permanently shifted the balance in the region in favor of the republicans. Public support for independence is the strongest it's been in decades, particularly within the younger demographics. There's no sign of that sentiment slowing. On the other side of the fence, Parliament's desire to govern NI has lessened significantly, something that would have been considered sacrilege just 10 years ago.

I can't picture a situation where it won't eventually go to a vote, just like the Scottish referendum. I also can't imagine it being a particularly peaceful transition whatever the result of the vote.

[disgruntledphd2]

> Don't make assumptions; I'm well aware. I was deployed to an RAF station there for a number of months, my fathers side of the family are all passionate Catholic Irish republicans, and my mother all served in NI during the Troubles in the British Army. I know the history intimately through them, and years of studying the conflict within officer branch of the RAF.

Wow, in that case you probably have a more in-depth awareness than me. It's just that lots of people with no context have been pushing a United Ireland post Brexit, and it's really frustrating to try to explain that it's not quite that easy. My apologies for lumping you in with those people.

> I do truly believe that Brexit has fundamentally and permanently shifted the balance in the region in favor of the republicans. Public support for independence is the strongest it's been in decades, particularly within the younger demographics. There's no sign of that sentiment slowing. On the other side of the fence, Parliament's desire to govern NI has lessened significantly, something that would have been considered sacrilege just 10 years ago.

I think that you're probably right, but I would prefer this to happen really slowly with a well thought out plan. I think sometime by the late 2030's/early 40s would probably make sense. I'm just very conscious of how Brexit was managed, and I dearly want to avoid a situation like that.

More generally, the population of the Republic will most likely need to make a whole bunch of compromises to get unity (change the anthem/flag/maybe rejoin the Commonwealth etc) and it's gonna take a while to get people in the South to shift on that.

> I can't picture a situation where it won't eventually go to a vote, just like the Scottish referendum. I also can't imagine it being a particularly peaceful transition whatever the result of the vote.

That's why I want to wait a while, as right now definitely seems like the wrong time (sadly). If Brexit hadn't happened then we'd have had a much easier time of this, but such is life.