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by subroutine
1302 days ago
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It looks like they are simply providing the summary data to their multiple choice survey questions. Still, CI or SEM would not apply (there is no SEM for 80% of forecasters said 'yes'). These graphs are literally just telling you the percent of responders who picked a given answer to the corresponding question. edit- the longer I browse their website for the exact methodology, the less impressed I am with this group. The "Introducing the Superforecasters" section is so cringe. https://goodjudgment.com/about/ |
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