[xenadu02]

That's why it is just one possibility. I usually only ever see people patting themselves on the back after the Nth time they're finally "proven right" about housing being over-valued. My point is just that you can be right about housing (or the stock market), make well-timed correct decisions, and still end up losing compared to the supposed "chump" who just went with the market. It all depends on your exact situation, exact market conditions, etc.

My guess is most people doing the back-patting have never run the numbers on an adverse scenario. They just see the top-line number dip and say "see, I was correct to wait!"

tl;dr: Run the numbers comprehensively for several scenarios. Include gains you missed out on, rates moving against you, your time horizon, risk appetite, etc. It isn't theoretical, real people have lost real money by being correct about a downturn.

[ddorian43]

> My guess is most people doing the back-patting have never run the numbers on an adverse scenario.

It's a $300K+ of lumpsum in the stock market. Usually it's the correct thing to do. But sometimes you buy at the worst time and lose ~30% or more.