[oblio]

Yeah, but then we run into another problem.

If Tesla truly wants to remain a luxury brand forever, its market cap should reflect that.

It shouldn't be the market cap of the next Toyota (car maker) and Panasonic (battery maker) combined and multiplied by 10.

[spywaregorilla]

I'm don't get why people care about market cap, but for what it's worth, tesla sits at about 2-3x those two companies combined. And panasonic is "just" a 20 billion dollar market cap company.

[oblio]

> tesla sits at about 2-3x those two companies combined

Now, when it fell about 50%. I was just behind the news.

At a certain point this graph was true: https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Tesla-m...

Which was just insane.

Why do people care about market cap? Because it shows mindshare. It shows what people care about and where investments should go, preorders, a lot of that stuff.

Plus market cap can be converted into money (not 1:1, but still).

[KptMarchewa]

AFAIK, they eventually want to provide "Model 2" for about 60-70% of Model 3 price. They need to scale up their whole operations to be able to profit off of that.

[oblio]

Yes, they probably want that. And they also want pie in the sky.

The Model 3 was launched in July 2017, about 5.5 years ago. Unveiling in April 2016, more than 6.5 years ago. During the unveiling, if I'm not wrong, they announced the $35k Model 3. In 2019 they actually released the $35k Model 3, as more of a publicity stunt, since they pulled it after only 2 months.

Back then €1 was about $1.2, so that price would have been about €24k.

Instead, in the real world of today, where €1 is less than $1, the cheapest Model 3 you can buy in Europe is about €54k.

So at the new exchange rate, it's more than twice as expensive, and even with the old exchange rate, it would have still been $45k (about 30% more expensive).

So the "Model 2" will actually be around the price that was promised for Model 3.

More than that, Tesla is notoriously unreliable regarding forecasts. At this point I don't think the Model 3 will ever be back to $35k/€35k.

And this new "Model 2" will probably be launched 10 years from now and it will cost what the Model 3 was supposed to cost, back in 2017.

I don't know about you, but I don't make my plans around stuff that takes 15 years to be ready (5.5 years until now + the likely 10 more years it takes them to launch it).

[KptMarchewa]

>Yes, they probably want that. And they also want pie in the sky.

That was being said about literally every Musk venture, either failed or successful.

>The Model 3 was launched in July 2017, about 5.5 years ago. Unveiling in April 2016, more than 6.5 years ago. During the unveiling, if I'm not wrong, they announced the $35k Model 3. In 2019 they actually released the $35k Model 3, as more of a publicity stunt, since they pulled it after only 2 months.

>Back then €1 was about $1.2, so that price would have been about €24k.

>Instead, in the real world of today, where €1 is less than $1, the cheapest Model 3 you can buy in Europe is about €54k.

>So at the new exchange rate, it's more than twice as expensive, and even with the old exchange rate, it would have still been $45k (about 30% more expensive).

Blame ECB (for currency value drop) and supply and demand. Turns out enough people want to buy 35k€ vehicle for 54k€.

>And this new "Model 2" will probably be launched 10 years from now and it will cost what the Model 3 was supposed to cost, back in 2017.

Yeah, but who cares? The purchasing power of that will be equal to what it would have cost based on original estimates.

[oblio]

Did you miss the "10 years from now" part? :-)

We call that "vaporware", not worth discussing.

[KptMarchewa]

Yes, but this is only your projection, not a fact. Purely based on last 2 years of pandemic and extreme supply disruption, combined with wars and other geopolitics dangers.