[arcticbull]

People are overwhelmingly in fixed rate debt this time, and lending standards tightened meaningfully after 2008. I wouldn't bet on that being a catalyst.

[edit] We're talking like 2-4% of originations have been ARMs from 2009 onward, vs. a peak of 35% in 2004-2007.

[theGnuMe]

The issue is that people will be stuck for 5-10 years in their current house. There will be limited new construction and eventually remodeling will stop. Watch the numbers out of Home Depot and Lowes.