[Beltalowda]

But we can ask the same about Russia: how do they benefit? If there is any benefit to Russia then I'm not seeing it, beyond some vague and essentially meaningless chest-beating. And the pipeline was valuable to Russia, even when turned off, as it was a reasonably effective piece of leverage that's now just gone.

I'd be surprised if the US was involved because the thing could backfire massively it were to come out they were behind it, and it's just not worth the risk. But Russia is not really an "obvious" suspect either IMO. My best guess is that it's an irrational act from an irrational regime (Putin) as a kind of "fuck you".

[Espressosaurus]

It might help factions within Russia, or hurt factions within Russia. Not everything is about benefit for the country; in fact many things aren't. For example: continuing the war in Ukraine is beneficial to Vlad, or at least he must think it is to continue it over admitting defeat and withdrawing.

I can imagine Vlad or a faction aligned with him thinking this severs the ability for someone else displacing him to just turn on the taps, retreat out of Ukraine, and say "lol, whoops, our bad".

So the benefit may be to factions within Russia, even if it's detrimental to Russian economic capabilities.

[borissk]

Russia had long term contracts to support gas to many European countries. They stopped supplying gas, meaning the other parties on those contracts can sue them for many billions of dollars. But if the pipeline is destroyed it's not Russia's fault - no need to pay.

The fact that out of 4 pipes 3 were destroyed and one was left impact IMHO strongly points to Russia doing it - any other country would destroy all 4.

[fuoqi]

There is absolutely no need to blow pipelines for that. Pipelines which were paid in half by Russia. Russia was successfully limiting gas supplies by citing "technical" issues, which were likely to continue until some solution for political. Have you heard about any countries suing Russia for that?

[borissk]

The "technical" issues they cited wouldn't stand in court, especially when experts from the western companies that produced and installed the equipment testify that they are made up and/or trivial to fix.

Practically every country that has it's gas cut off is preparing to sue.

During the summer the price of gas on the European exchanges was often over $2000 for 1000 cubic meters. The long term contracts signed years ago had the price fixed around $200. Russia was losing a ton of money everyday these pipes were pumping gas. On top of that these deliveries were decreasing the global demand for gas - lowering the price Russia could sell gas outside of contract. There was a huge pressure from the top in GasProm to find a way out of those contracts.

[7e]

Russia doesn’t need to benefit. The sabotage just needs to influence or weaken some Russian obliarch subject to Putin’s whims.