[nemo44x]

Yeah I think it’s why SBF immediately went on about not knowing everything that was going on, that he messed up by misunderstanding things, etc. He’s trying to lay the groundwork for plausible deniability here.

He will either go to prison or kill himself I would bet.

[gentryb]

Betting someone will kill themselves or go to prison is far from constructive, and is triggering to many. Go to prison is one thing. Suicide is another. It's not a joke.

EDIT: Suicide is something that's hit personally lately - my response was likely something based on that. To the person who responded - I didn't think you considered suicide a joke - and plenty do consider it. It's never a solution though. You even got an upvote.

[nemo44x]

I’m not joking. And I agree it’s a serious matter. But staring down at 40+ years, a significant number of people would kill themselves in his position.

“I’d bet” is a figure of speech. Not the stated desire to gamble.

[from]

He won't get forty years. If he ever is indicted in America, he has to be extradited from the Bahamas first. Anyone with money can delay extradition proceedings for a couple years. Maybe he'll agree to extradition on the condition that he is granted bail in America (where he'll have $200,000 a month security guards from Guidepost Solutions enforce the conditions of his bail). Then he'll have Ben Brafman or a bigger $2000/hour firm, assisted by the world class investigators from Kobre & Kim and other high priced co-counsel negotiate the best deal possible and he'll plea guilty to some counts of wire fraud. Then at sentencing we'll hear about all his great charitable deeds, there'll be 100 letters from high level businessmen, politicians attesting to his great character, how he thought he was doing the right thing but "takes responsbility" for his actions, etc. Then maybe due to the massive losses and large number of victims he gets 10-15 years which of course after the 15% time good credit becomes 8 and a half. Then maybe we'll also find out he had a substance abuse disorder which makes him eligibile for the RDAP program and accordingly a 12 month sentence reduction. He'll also be eligible through the First Step Act to earn sentence reduction through "evidence-based recidivism reduction" classes in prison. And even if there is court ordered restitution almost no one ever pays that or if they do it is only a small fraction (there are major white collar fraudsters on $200/month payment plans for $10 million restitution orders). This is assuming he even faces justice in America because there are reports of several hundred million dollars of crypto being moved out of FTX wallets which to me looks like the internet money version of a "go bag" and someone intending to flee.