| Dotcom was an obvious bubble. It doesn’t matter if the index level reached new highs 15 years after crashing. Valuing 15 years of company growth into today’s price almost always means that it’s a poor buy. You could obviously buy something more fairly valued today and enter later at a more optimal price. Is cloudflare a good investment now at 12-15x sales? Almost certainly not. It becoming a $1T company 20 years from now doesn’t invalidate that There are plenty of people who beat the market consistently, including myself. Warren Buffet, Michael Burry, Druckenmiller, Peter Lynch, Renaissance Capital. Are they statistical outliers, or do they have an edge? To me, it appears quite easy these days if you have any sense of fundamentals, which 90% of market participants seem to no longer have. You literally have many companies that are direct peers/competitors trading at far different multiples. That alone is enough to invalidate the EMH. Look at valuation differences between single tenant net lease retail stocks, for example. The biggest edge will be in smaller cap and less followed names. And there are thousands of them. Pretty easy to find small cap peers in RE that have better growth, same risk profile, and much lower valuation multiples, for example |
> Look at valuation differences between single tenant net lease retail stocks, for example. The biggest edge will be in smaller cap and less followed names. And there are thousands of them. Pretty easy to find small cap peers in RE that have better growth, same risk profile, and much lower valuation multiples, for example
Less liquid markets are less efficient. People who go and exploit these mispricings help make the prices better, and the market pays them for it. (But that only works for as long as there are mispricings.)
> Is cloudflare a good investment now at 12-15x sales?
Please short cloudfare and make some easy money.