But how, if you had spent time being a market maker, that is to say you understand market neutral strategies, would you convince yourself to take this bet? It seems contrary to his presumed understanding of the markets.
My personal hypothesis is that people keep attributing the successes of SBF to his intellect rather than a mix of intellect and luck, like the rest of us mere mortal. That list could as well include SBF himself. One can be lucky often but not forever, and sooner or later the "prodigies" see the fault in their impeccable algorithms.
this is it. Luck can look a lot like genius. We see it everywhere. And when you have credentials behind you, you really start to attribute luck to your genius.
People who understand that betting on red over and over again isn't a long-term winning strategy usually don't make the news for fraudulently pissing away 8 billion dollars of customer funds.