[jhancock]

I mostly agree. You have two choices with buying American stocks now: 1 - play the day trade game and squeeze out margins as the market is wild from day to day 2 - play long, buy great deals and hold for years.

The only people that can play option 1 well are serious traders that have tons of time, cash, and really know what they're doing (or just have dumb luck, but applies to anything you might do with money).

The only people that can play option 2 well are serious investors that have people that work for them to analyze which are best long term buys and mange them, oh yeah, and also have lots of cash on hand; cash you don't need to use a for a long time.

So although I do try to pay attention to when people like Buffet dish out advice, I also understand that few can play at his game.

[jimbokun]

Aren't the people who play game number 1 largely responsible for the current financial mess? Maybe not day traders per se, but that sort of mentality of everyone thinking they are in the top few percent of investors and able to beat the market.

[fauigerzigerk]

No, because this time it's not a stock market bubble that burst. It's a credit bubble caused by very low interest rates. You could say that the stock market bubble of 2000 lead to the low interest rates, but it's not true. Money supply has sharply increased in the US since the 1980s. Now it's payback time for a few years I'm afraid.

[jhancock]

not really; that is leveraged buying. I'm talking about only buying things you actually have the cash to pay for.

[newt0311]

Number 1 is idiotic. Historically, investors who hold shares for more than 6 months get 9 times the returns of investors who churn on a short term basis. Furthermore, there is no way to predict how stocks will behave in the short term. In the long term, we can be reasonably certain that they will appreciate. In the short term, we have no idea. Furthermore, if you are not an institutional investors, federal income taxes of ~35%, and stockbroker fees will absolutely obliterate you and if you are a institutional investor, you have too much money to be able to day trade. The only people who ever try #1 are the ones who have no clue what they are doing and usually end up broke. They need to read The Intelligent Investor by Graham.

[jhancock]

yes, number 1 is idiotic, for me and for most others.

The second route also doesn't work real well for most small investors that don't have a team to constantly analyze what are the best long term holds. My point is simply that I do listen to Buffet's advice and haven't disagreed with him. Its just that most cannot play the game in the same way he can.

Most small investors can only afford to allow large companies to manage a portfolio for them (normal 401k fund management companies). Look at the current balance sheet of these folks. They are destroyed. The fund companies didn't take care of them. Have you heard of any fund company that sent messages to their small 401k customers telling them "hey, you need to redistribute your portfolio NOW!!! Its what Buffet is doing. Then in a year or so, we'll take all that cash we switched you into and buy stocks again when the market is low". Hell no. I'm not saying the management companies are completely out of line for not taking care of the little guy. What I am saying is the little guy can't ever expect that kind of treatment. It all means that only a few get to actually partake in Buffet's wisdom.