[MuffinFlavored]

Odds of winning Powerball: one in 292.2 million

Odds of guessing SPY direction right through calls/puts right and getting 30% return: going to guess not that bad

I'm curious what the odds of making a profitable options play are. It's got to be less than 50-50 because of the time decay.

[jnwatson]

The great thing about options, like sports gambling, is you can find an option play that will give you whatever odds you want.

You can bet the underlying goes up, that it doesn't go up, that it moves in either direction, that it doesn't move in either direction.

There are plenty of 90% odds option plays. Keep in mind there's a big difference between odds and expected value.