[iav]

GDP grew +2% in Q3, after declining in Q1 and Q2. Gross Domestic Income (similar to GDP but measured differently) grew consistently the entire year. And unemployment rate has declined consistently every single month and stands at 3.57%. I think it would be hard to thread a needle to call any part of YTD 2022 as a recession with this kind of fact pattern. Only if unemployment rate starts to increase in a dramatic way can we really go back and say we were in a recession this year.

[eloff]

I agree with that, but mind you there are two kinds of job numbers. The household survey numbers and the official ones which mysteriously diverge from the survey before elections, but otherwise track nicely. There's some two million jobs that only exist on paper to benefit the incumbent government. This anomaly appears regardless of which party is in power.