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by roganp 1317 days ago
And also: at the time of Binance's offer to buy FTX, it makes sense only if Binance saw significant contagion risks to FTX's failure. But then they got a little closer and saw the huge hole in FTX's balance sheet and decided that they couldn't do that either. So it's really the worst outcome - they signal that FTX is important to their own business, but then can't do anything to save it. Does not seem to be good news for Binance.
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Binance already knew that there was a hole there. They had just triggered the bank run by calling it out. The attempt to bail out FTX later was only for saving face and maybe also because they freaked out but couldn't stop it at that point.
And if they didn't know how large the hole was, they must have gotten a pretty good idea before signing the LOI. Even if it was rushed, surely that would be the first question they ask.

It seems clear from CZ's public announcement of a $2b FTT dump that their intention was to destroy FTX and Alameda. So my theory is that the LOI was a trap to put a nail in the coffin, destroying any remaining trust in FTX.

Before they were merely starting rumors; the phony acquisition attempt let them declare "we've seen the books and FTX is unsalvageable".