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by qqqwerty 1314 days ago
I am in that camp as well. But... my rent is less than half the cost of a mortgage (including taxes and insurance) for a similar place. And this doesn't even account for maintenance costs. My landlord prefers long term tenants, so has shown no interest in raising our rent, and even if they did we are under rent control which will limit the damage. And while we are definitely paying under market rent, it is not by that much. So I feel fairly confident we can find something similar on short notice, and with more time could probably find a really good deal.

So after years of holding our down payment money in low interest savings accounts, I am now moving it into CDs and bonds that have nice returns which will result in a nice chunk of change. And if prices don't come down anytime soon, I am more than happy to keep renting. I think prices would need to drop by almost 40% before I would really consider buying at this point.

For context, I am in the Bay Area so it might be a somewhat unique situation to our market. But in the four years that I have been renting at this particular location, rents have not really moved much while house prices are up 50%.

2 comments

I think I'd do what your landlord is doing if I were in that position.

Having a long term reliable renter, which I'm sure you are, give them a rent that is a good deal (slightly below market), and they'll stay. Even if your rent doesn't cover mortgage and expenses, eventually you or other renters are going to buy the property for your landlord, and that's worth a lot.

Especially if home prices are up 50% - keeping your rent stable and you there paying it means your landlord is getting a spectacular deal.

Agreed. It is worth mentioning that in CA my landlord is benefiting greatly from Prop 13. They bought the house a long time ago, it is almost certainly paid off by now. And due to prop 13 they have locked in absurdly low property taxes. This is a big quirk to the CA rental market. Anyone buying a property now in order to rent it out is going to see significant negative cash flow. I think AirBNB renters can squeak out a positive cashflow, but they better hope bookings don't dry up.
Unfortunately CDs and bonds rates are way below inflation, so you are going to lose money if you don't buy assets. I am in similar situation and don't know what to do.
Inflation is trending down and there are plenty of long term CDs and bonds with decent rates that will almost certainly mature long after this current inflationary period comes to pass. The Fed has given strong signals that they intend to tackle inflation regardless of the cost. So locking a 10+ year CD or bond at current rates is almost certainly going to beat inflation in the long term. Also FWIW, I do expect rates to continue to rise for a few more months, so I am keeping plenty gradually rolling my savings into these investments.
Inflation is trending down from 9% to 6%. The longest CDs I can find are for 5 years only with 4.25% rate. 6%-8% inflation could stay for a decade.