[hollowdene]

This is quite a flawed and obviously biased analysis.

To use just one example. If the UK hadn't had locked down when it did, it's likely the entire health service would have collapsed, leading to more excess AND Covid deaths.

Unlike the author, I don't pretend to have the answer, but anyone with a functioning brain can see this "analysis" is without merit.

[lostlogin]

The tone is amazing. I live on a ‘prison island’ (New Zealand). Describing him as ‘The best epidemiologist in the world’ in the intro.

[dpkirchner]

This seems to be a common theme among substack articles, at least those that make it into the top 60 on HN (pages 1 and 2). Poor reasoning, politically motivated bias, etc. I could be wrong, though; I certainly have my own biases.

[gmarx]

I don't know if the UK system has unique characteristics that would have made it likely to collapse (whatever that means) but I equally sure it wouldn't have happened in the US. I waited in vain for stories of people dying because no more beds or ventilators were available and never found one. I ready plenty about how we were close. The way probability works if we were really close, there would have been many examples of it actually happening.

Either way, that doesn't really answer his analysis unless you can account for the collapse not happening in Sweden