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by ramish94 1316 days ago
Welcome to the world of unregulated finance.

There’s a reason the FDIC exists and all banks must be insured.

4 comments

There's nothing decentralized about FTX or Binance. They operate in an opaque manner like any traditional business, transparency comes from forced audits & regulation.

Decentralized finance is built on chain where all assets are publicly auditable at all times.

EDIT: parent comment talked about decentralized finance, then edited to remove mentions of defi

Even without the edit, your response feels like a no-true-scotsman

i.e. an attempt to remove bad actors who deal in decentralized cryptocurrencies from the purity that is defi.

What are some large, successful defi organizations today?

I don't see at all how you can say calling out literally centralized companies as "not-decentralized" is no-true-scotsman. It's just an obvious fact.

> What are some large, successful defi organizations today?

In my opinion, if there is an organization behind it then it is, by definition, not decentralized. Yes, even the ones that operate fully on-chain.

>literally centralized companies as "not-decentralized"

So defi is only 100% decentralized everything, even if the financial tools are decentralized? That feels like an appeal to purity if ever there were one.

Ok, my previous comment is a bit unclear about what I mean. In my opinion if there is a group of people, other than the participants themselves, who can control the operation of the financial service then it is not decentralized. There can absolutely be an organization that builds the service, but participants should not be forced to adopt updates and should be free to transfer their entire balance to any other service at any time.

I realize I’m on the fringe a bit with this but I think it’s not because I have an extreme idea of what defi is, it’s that there have been so many grifters in the last 5 or so years that have used the buzzword “defi” to sell their shitty reincarnation of long-outlawed shady centralized financial schemes as something revolutionary that it’s shifted the public perception of the term. I’d even agree with you that it’s an appeal to purity.

Uniswap. Large in terms of volume, not org size.
Uniswap, Curve DAO, AAVE, Compound, Lido, MakerDAO...
https://defillama.com/ - there are hundreds. Almost all are open source and transparent.
Tornado Cash is pretty successful.
not sure about this one.
Note that FTX.us is regulated under some US licenses and is unaffected. What was blown up was FTX.com operation that is licensed and regulated in Bahamas.

[insert coconut meme.gif here]

This has nothing to do with defi. This is purely centralized entity shenanigans.
The FDIC is just a ruse to let "useful idiots" think that everything is okay. In reality, the FDIC charges banks 90% less than the actuarial value of the risk they take on, and banks make wildly risky loans/bets all the time, knowing it's "heads I win, tails the taxpayer loses."

Insofar as you can call US Finance any better than crypto, it's because of socialized losses. IMO, bank failures are a much more appropriate solution.

What is the 'actuarial value' of the risk a bank takes on?
I can tell you a bank like say JP Morgan Chase, who is charged 5bp a year (i.e. 5 cents for every $100 dollars), has a much higher chance of catastrophic failure than 1 in 2000. Many banks just like them fail every few decades, and it was generous of me to only say they're undercharged by 90% (i.e. 1 in 200 odds), when the reality is probably more within a range like 1 in 20 to 1 in 100.
> who is charged 5bp a year (i.e. 5 cents for every $100 dollars)

Am I crazy or would 5 basis points be 0.05 cents (1/100th of a percent)

So you're making this numbers up? If banks are being undercharged, the insurer will be incurring losses. It's as simple as that.
The insurer is the United States government. They take losses on things all the time. It's called "socialized losses." I referred to it before, and it sounds like you don't even understand these finance 101 (or even basic high school civics) topics, so why are you insulting anyone?
The insurer is a corporation with its own financial statements, so it's pretty easy to see if it's operating at a loss (and thus subsidising the banking industry) or at a profit (not subsidising it). I guess you didn't know that either.
In case anyone is curious, here is what some of my research has found:

The empirical rate of bank failure in the last couple decades has been slightly over 1 in 250 banks per year (that is, ~0.4%/bank/year, or "40 basis points"). This is from these two sources: https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/ says that on average 27.3 banks per year have failed, while https://banks.data.fdic.gov/explore/historical?displayFields... says that there have been ~6500 banks covered. (I think that the probability of a massive bank failure is in fact higher than the empirical rate, due to the tail risk of catastrophic failures.)

I have not been able to find what rates JP Morgan Chase pays for their deposit insurance, but I think this page https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/historical.html suggests that the rate is between 1.5 and 40 basis points per year. Some other sources I've found do suggest that the average rate is around 5 bps/year.

Already we see that the empirical failure rate is higher than the assessment rate. (Although note that the probability was not weighted by dollars, whereas the rate is.) This is perhaps surprising, because the FDIC claims that "The FDIC receives no Congressional appropriations - it is funded by premiums that banks and savings associations pay for deposit insurance coverage." https://www.fdic.gov/about/what-we-do/index.html Perhaps this is part of the point of this comment I am replying to.

But indeed, we find that historically the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund has gone negative multiple times: https://www.aba.com/news-research/research-analysis/fdic-cap... https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/assuringconfidence.pd... Historically, in such a situation, the FDIC is able to borrow from the federal government. It has done so in 1990, while in 2008 it did other maneuvers that similarly show that the rate is insufficient.

As a result, it's plausible to predict: (a) the deposit insurance fund might go negative again (ie, the insurance rate is incorrect), (b) the deposit insurance fund will definitely go negative in a situation like the S&L crisis or the 2008 financial crisis (thus requiring tricks like the borrowing mentioned above), and (c) in the event of a more catastrophic failure, the insurance fund will go so far negative that it might be explicitly bailed out by the broader federal government.