[shapefrog]

Rounded to the nearest meaningful number 0.00 cubic feet of gas was going to flow through those pipes in the foreseeable future.

Blowing them up did everyone, on both sides, a lot of favours by ending the whole will they / wont they charade that was taking place on both sides.

[oezi]

I never understood the Northstream strategy on all sides before the war and I don't understand the reasoning for blowing it up either.

For Russia to blow up its own pipeline takes away their ability to offer gas in exchange for money and political influence regarding the Ukraine conflict. Why should they want to give up this bargaining chip they worked hard for the last 20 years?

The only reason I can think of is that they believe there is no way for European to buy any gas anyway. Yet, this is in contrast to the European narrative to become independent of Russian energy over the next years but still continue to buy this energy now even if blood is sticking to it.

Thus Russia was either thinking that they don't need the money/foreign reserves anyway or that there goal of destabilizing Europe with high energy prices can't be achieved unless they turn off gas supplies entirely.

But even her the mere existence of the pipeline might have benefitted Russia because it did allow appeasers in Europe to argue for 'negotiations' with Russia. Since the pipelines were blown up, these appeasers have gotten really quite (at least in Germany) because it is clear that there is no way back with Russia.

Internally inside Russia it might be useful to portray Russia under Western attack but seems to me also projecting weakness.

In summary I don't consider it very plausible that Russia would blow up such a strategic asset.

Looking from the European perspective it also makes very little sense. Yes, everyone except the Germans hated that pipeline but the basic idea to have a pipeline directly to Russia as a carrot & stick worth 20 bn EUR of money transfer per month seems as plausible as ever.

And would any European country risk being found out to execute a bombing of infrastructure that is part of the German sphere of influence? For instance Poland? Kind of inconceivable. The US? Hard to fathom.

Which leaves only two possibilities: It was an operation by Ukraine to simplify European politics or Putin got so mad about the continuous failure that he acted irrationally once again.

Really though 3D chess it seems.

[shapefrog]

Both sides are holding it as a bargaining chip while simultaneously having it held over them as a bargaining chip. Neither side now wants to transact on the pipeline as it will ultimately be a sign of weakness. Either Europe blinks because it is desperate for gas or Russia blinks because it is desperate for money - and neither side is going to blink.

All the while Europe hasnt found it that hard to find other sources of gas and Russia hasnt found it too hard to find buyers willing to get a discount.

[7952]

I guess it could have been a quid pro quo for some kind of support from China. It makes a switch to the east more explicit.