| > We have NOW insane computing power, cool stuff like insane size FPGAs and super fast GPUs. They are still slow, compared to human brains. To compete with biological neurons, computers may have to be 100x-1000x faster. Your phone is massively more powerful than a DEC Alpha based workstation from 1992 and it can fit in your pocket. Moore's law may be slowing, but I still expect compute to be 100x-1000x performance/$ and performance/W in 30 years. Software is already on its way into a paradigm shift, where it will increasingly be written by AI (look at the state of github copilot). Hardware (both eletronic and mechanical) design will continue to see similar developments. At some point, spot-like robots will reach a price where it starts to become affordable by some households. That moment will be similar to the appearance of PC's in the 80s or phones in the 2000x. As the market explodes, prices will drop really quickly. And even before that, militaries will drive development. Drones (ie robots) are already becoming a key factor in the war in Ukraine. Battery tech is the main limitation at the moment. Though I do expect significantly better energy density over 30 years, and reduction in power consumption should make up the rest. So basially, I expect robots will have a development over the next 30 years similar to how PC's developed from 1980-2000 or phones developed from 2000-2020, if not more. |