[macintux]

I firmly believe that, had Ukraine collapsed within days of the invasion as Russia expected, they’d be in a NATO country by now. I think Putin expected NATO to turn out to be a paper tiger when it came to the Baltics, at least.

Given the reports that Trump planned to drop out of NATO in his second term, and given the ongoing tensions within Europe, it’s not unreasonable to think Russia could get away with gradual encroachment.

[DoingIsLearning]

You are scaremongering. I mean Moldova maybe.

There is no way in hell Russia would purposefully trigger art 5.

They may talk the talk for their internal audience but although they may show signs of unexpected incompetence they are not stupid.

An internal coup would be more likely than going full out Leeroy Jenkins WW3.

[justin66]

"There is no way in hell Russia would purposefully trigger art 5" is not what the governments of the Baltic states believe.

[mantas]

Not only governments. I’d say a good portion of our population wouldn’t bet their lives on this.

[mantas]

Why not?

Looking back at the beginning of war, had Ukraine fell in days… I don’t see West actively trying to stop Russia in Baltics and Poland. Russians would have had super high morale while West would have been in 100% panic mode trying to keep business as usual going. Tiny annoyances in the middle be damned.

[DoingIsLearning]

> Why not?

https://i.imgur.com/rKNtPSt.png

[mantas]

If West would have political will to deploy.

[DoingIsLearning]

To not act would be to dissolve the whole purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty.

[macintux]

There are no shortage of politicians in NATO countries who feel it should be disbanded. And others who would argue NATO could defend Western Europe even if it abandoned the rest of the continent.