[jamesvnz]

That's a rather sensationalist headline. Written by an Australian looking at graphs, rather than having a feel for what's going on.

I'm sure he's a capable economist, but based on what I see, New Zealand is not "plunging". There's definitely a slow down - but I think most businesses are expecting a relatively soft landing.

I guess time will tell.

[plantain]

I'm not commenting if they're wrong in this case in particular, but Macrobusiness's business model is sensational/doomer headlines funnelling into their private newsletter.

They may look prescient if you read the last years publications, but they well and truly live up to the joke "Economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions."

[flog]

Judging by my inability to get into any store at Westgate last weekend due to the crowds, I think we're still a while off "plunging". /anacdata

[billforsternz]

Similarly my anecdata is how hard it is to find a car park in the allegedly in decline Wellington CBD and then how difficult it is to find a restaurant that isn't overflowing with happy diners and consequently incapable of accommodating us.

[formerkrogemp]

As it's been explained to me, we're in a demand shock with more or less normal supply constrained by logistics problems.

[SturgeonsLaw]

Macrobusiness is the Zero Hedge of Australia. They are permabears, often with a reasonable financial case for the claims they're making, but they definitely start from the premise that the sky is falling, then look for data that corroborates that perspective.

[lostlogin]

If you skim headlines it's much as you say. Interest rates rising (but still around historic averages), falling house prices and high inflation.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/topics/business-economy

[potatochup]

> falling house prices

Good?

[john2x]

Good for the wealthy.

Middle-class still can't buy because of stricter lending rules and increasing interest rates.

Middle-class who FOMO'd in the last 2 years will see their interest rates double and even triple when they refinance in the next months. With inflation and cost of living rises recently, that bump up in their mortgage payments is really going to hurt.

Meanwhile, those with the cash can just scoop up houses (if/when they want to).

Silver lining is younger and future generations might not be completely and utterly f'd.

[tmnvix]

Overall, yes, very.

For some not so much. Talking with my landlord the other week, they said that they regretted not selling the house last year when they moved. It's lost 15k every week this year on average (according to homes.co.nz estimates). That's almost 30%.

For people like me, it's a good thing. Interest rates are higher, sure, but a smaller deposit is needed and for most people I know that have been looking to buy it's the raising of the deposit that has been the biggest hurdle.

[Grimburger]

Investments aren't meant to be risk free.

[lostlogin]

That's exactly it though. For many it's as much a home as an investment.

[tuatoru]

That is what is wrong with using housing as an investment class.

[lostlogin]

Yes. But there will be losers. Some of this I'm fine with but hurting first home buyers and those who need a home to live in is crap.

[dzhiurgis]

So what happens when your house mortgage is in negative equity? Just means you’ll need to hodl longer?

[tuatoru]

Yes.

Those with negative equity are likely to pay down debt faster rather than consuming (hang on to the car for another year, or not repaint, for example), so there is some effect on aggregate demand over time.