[Mistletoe]

This might explain why Sam Trabucco the former co-CEO abruptly left out of the blue a few months ago…

https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/08/25/sam-trabucco-quits-co-...

For those not in the know, Alameda is THE trading firm in crypto that everyone always assumes is causing liquidations. For them to be insolvent would be a huge deal.

It’s crazy to watch greed pollute the minds of crypto trading firms like Three Arrows Capital and Alameda. Zhu Su put it best in his own tweet long ago before the greed set in and he needed more and more gains.

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1092305648904065024

“Bad TA (technical analysis) is not just marginally bad--it can mean being net down trading an asset that has gone 1,500x and is still 250x from start date.”

“For much of 2017, Buy and Hold was actually the best performing strategy since Jan1 2013 of ALL TA strategies possible. This can easily become the case again if we go on a bull run at some point.”

Crypto gains are so large that there is no need to go crazy with trading and leverage and the crashes every four years are actually a great boon as long as you realize they will never go away.

[polygamous_bat]

Am I correct in understanding your argument that "so long as numbers keep going up, all will be fine"? Because there is a possibility that crypto never gains back the hype as late 2020, and Bitcoin never reaches the high of $69K ever again, in which case people who "bought and hold" at that time (including those who were encouraged to be "brave" by Matt Damon in a crypto.com ad) will never see (a portion of) their money again.

[JohnJamesRambo]

If you are anticipating human greed evaporating, then yes, crypto will go to zero. My experiences so far in life have shown that to not be likely.

People holding stocks may never see ATH either, it’s the risk we take for the mental construct we believe in.

History says they probably will, as long as they hold a diverse portfolio.

Unfortunately crypto has become just a leveraged bet on the stock market and has lost much of its uncorrelated asset status. If the stock market recovers, crypto recovers even harder. Ethereum price is like a higher leverage TQQQ if you check the charts. I liked it better when it was uncorrelated.

[polygamous_bat]

> If you are anticipating human greed evaporating, then yes, crypto will go to zero.

Your assumption does not only rely on human greed but also on an upper limit on human creativity.

You are also making a (strong, imo) assumption that humans will not find a new and more creative outlet for their greed (aka pump and dump schemes) that is not crypto. Crypto is already associated in the public minds with many grifts and scams, and it may be much simpler at some point to create a new scheme rather than recycling old ones.

[jefftk]

> I liked it better when it was uncorrelated.

Is there a theorem that says returns never stay uncorrelated, because everyone want to diversify?

[FabHK]

Well, everyone wants to diversify, so everyone is willing to pay a premium for assets that are uncorrelated to the market, thus depressing their expected return. That's one of the basic insights of the CAPM. But that effect should not affect the correlation.

[reidjs]

The solution to that is to not invest (or gamble) more than you are willing to lose and not to take financial advice from movie stars.

[polygamous_bat]

Your response reads the same as "the solution to global warming is stopping fossil fuel use". Sure, you aren't technically wrong, but there are billion dollar corporations out there whose sole existence relies on your "solution" not catching on.