[RowanH]

The economy is anything but strong. Housing skyrocketed across 20/21/22 in particular, and now coming back down with a thump, combined with big cost of living hikes things are looking grim for your average salaried worker (especially if they have a big/recent mortgage, there's some negative equity love to be had). The only thing that might save us this summer from a very dark outlook is finally the tourists are coming back.. so that might soften the landing.

For context a lot of mortgages of recent times people got at very low rates fixed for 1-2 years (https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-research/home-loan-... ) and now (https://www.asb.co.nz/home-loans-mortgages/interest-rates-fe...) that's a brutal shift for people that had budgeted at 2.5% when their food bills are heading for the moon as well along with other living expenses.

Not discounting that most countries are having these problems, but it's fairly extreme here.

"Wellington continues to have the greatest proportion, with 38% of first home buyers who bought during the last three months of 2021 now in negative equity." https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/129611585/first-ho...

Job prospect wise: Devs are (and have been) enjoying a very strong market, but I think (personally) we're going to see some challenging times ahead once the retail reality of Christmas flows through. The banks had been on hiring binges (hey just like US tech co's) and they're going to wind off just as quickly as they wound on.

So come, but eyes wide open if you do. If you've got a sh*tload of money to bring with you, can get over the cost of living, there's probably some deals to be had in a year or two...

[creakingstairs]

Oh man, I remember people were almost panic buying houses because it just kept going up. I briefly looked around but gave up after finding that some shitty cottage in Island Bay was selling for 800k.

At the time, almost every conversation at work kept devolving into property (oh and crypto lol) which was annoying. And what was even more annoying were people who bought that were _convinced_ that they had got a good deal, lecturing me I should buy as well.

I ended up leaving the country for better pay, lower housing cost and good amount of savings to last me a while . I hope in 2 or so years when we go back, the prices are more reasonable.

[refurb]

Sounds just like Canada. Prices doubled during Covid and were already stupid high before that.

Plenty of people bought in during Covid, at the peak, at 1.X variable rates that are now north of 4% and rising.

Lots of Reddit posts from people asking “why is my pay off period 89 years now?”

It’s going to be interesting.

[brailsafe]

Lol, I was just about to comment "Sounds like Canada" before reading yours. Nothing is rational here, but our tiny studio rental in Van is alright.

[saiya-jin]

Anybody who takes a mortgage on the edge of their affordability and combines it with 1-2 years fixation is plain stupid and lacks primary school math skills, no other way around this simple fact (there is of course almost always the factor of greed but only very simple people let it run unchecked).

As much as I don't wish anything bad to anybody, stupid people being bitten back by their stupid decisions is very low on the sympathy list for anybody, compared to say civilians being shelled at their homes because vladimir woke up pissed off this morning.

[lostlogin]

Given how strict banks are, I’d be surprised if many people were in this position. A colleagues had their spend on coffee criticised by a bank, then they live well within their means.

[lostlogin]

I have a lot of sympathy for first home buyers as the market is tough. However if you bought and assumed that rates would stay at 2.5% and you can afford to pay more, I haven’t a ton of sympathy.

The historic average over 10 years is approximately 6.5%.

https://www.canstar.co.nz/home-loans/what-is-the-average-hom...