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by zmaurelius 1320 days ago
Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent.

The US does have the advantage in that high performing individuals on the level of Einstein have a higher chance of emerging due to much more personal freedom and social mobility, but that is difficult to account for because someone like Einstein may or may not emerge in the next 100 years.
2 comments
bayesian_horse 1320 days ago
But STEM graduates from China really aren't the same. And they aren't working in the kind of system that would promote progress. Or even select for performance properly. Additionally it's not like every Chinese high school student has the same access to higher education. It does depend on location, wealth and the guanxi of his parents.

Overall the economic growth is clearly faltering. And with a GDP growth rate that is only one or two percentage points ahead of "the West" the catching up is going to take a lot longer. It's quite the same with education, which is just another industry among many. China is running into a glass ceiling because of its system.

Additionally there is an economic world war raging right now, mostly against Russia. But China is increasingly getting on the wrong side of this, with much of the world opposing China.

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nordsieck 1320 days ago
> Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent.

Why do you think that's a reasonable assumption to make?

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zmaurelius 1320 days ago
Upon closer examination, it may not be. There is some force multiplier there that I am not accounting for and cannot because there isn't really a good unit of measurement for technological progress or research speed. What seems intuitively obvious is that a country with zero STEM graduates isn't making much headway in research unless they recruit immigrants, so there should be some correlation with the number of STEM graduates and speed of technological advancement.
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