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Meta definitely isn't dying, it's sliding into old age and slow growth. It's Walmart with Amazon (TikTok) on the scene. Walmart didn't disappear due to Amazon; Amazon's growth didn't actually erode Walmart backwards in any meaningful way; Amazon's growth likely came in part at the expense of Walmart. TikTok is a large niche social network, as are all major social networks in the West except for Facebook. That's why it'll find a lower plateau than FB core in terms of users, as with Pinterest, Snap, Twitter, Instagram, Reddit, WhatsApp (if one even cares to consider WhatsApp & Co. social networks, either way). Walmart hasn't been a great investment during the Amazon era. 20 years ago WMT was ~$55 / share. Inflation adjusted that's around $90 per the BLS (likely there has been more inflation than that). Today WMT is $142. So 20 years to add 57%. And sure, they pay a dividend, that merely makes the return a bit less mediocre - the S&P 500 is up 336% in that time for example. Meta, as with many (previously) overvalued tech stocks from this era, is in for a long stagnation vs the recent highs. It'll remind you of Microsoft ~2001-2015. Future returns were massively pulled forward. The pandemic remoting hyper activity era also pulled returns massively forward in other areas, which will be paid for via many years of stagnation in areas like advertising, ecommerce and remote tech (eg Zoom is an excellent example of said future returns being pulled forward; growth in remoting that might have taken a decade gradually, was zoomed forward courtesy of the pandemic; now the hangover). |