| It could be a bear market rally, which would not be too unusual [0]. Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan) says the market could drop another 20% before we hit bottom [1]. Then there’s OPEC threatening to cut supply. So, there’s certainly a chance of more pain to come in the stock market, but it’s impossible to predict a bottom. I do agree with your overall sentiment though. After this economic storm passes there will likely be good times ahead for the US. There are lots of great companies selling at a discount right now and there will be more in the near future. It’s a great time for long-term investors to buy. (Apple is looking great!) With that being said, this may represent a permanent change in the tech industry. Especially for startups and private, VC-backed companies. Last year we saw private SaaS companies raise at 100x ARR. Those multiples have dropped back down to 8-10x and may never reach similar heights again. This could even be the end of the Unicorn era. We’ve had near 0% interest rates since 2008. This was the primary driver of high tech valuations and the proliferation of Unicorns. Now with rates closer to normal, profitability will be expected sooner from tech companies and startups. In fact, Bessemer is trying to retire the term “Unicorn,” which is valuation-based, and replace it with “Centaur,” which is ARR-based (ARR>=$100M) [2]. It hasn’t caught on yet, but I’m a fan of the punnier spelling (CentARR). [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-big-of-a-bear-ma... [1] https://www.barrons.com/articles/jp-morgan-jamie-dimon-51665... [2] https://www.bvp.com/centaur |