[bryanlarsen]

It's easy to predict the markets, just as it's easy to predict the weather.

I predict it will rain sometime in the next month at my address. I also predict that it will freeze hard in the same time period.

This is a useful prediction, given that I will be winterizing my yard today.

Making a prediction better than an expert's is hard. Useful predictions are often easy.

If my father in law decides to plant 1000 acres in wheat next year, he is making a prediction about the markets. Given the situation in Ukraine and with global climate, wheat prices are one of the most difficult to predict precisely. But he is a low cost producer compared to many, so he knows he is likely to make a profit whether the price is high or low. A precise prediction would be nice, but producers everywhere operate with imprecise but useful predictions all the time.

[drran]

«Situation» in Ukraine is at mid-WWII level (1942), so plant the wheat. It will be tough to produce and export wheat in Ukraine for next two years at least.

[bryanlarsen]

If the war in Ukraine continues, oilseeds are the most profitable planting choice.