[neilwilson]

"Excess supply at a given price level almost by definition means prices should trend downwards"

Excess capacity to supply doesn't mean there is excess supply. Supply is restrained due to lack of demand.

With excess supply capacity, Firms don't generally run at full output unless there are orders to fulfil. But that doesn't mean they can't then ramp up if the orders come in.

It's when capacity to supply is exhausted that we get price inflation.

"The price of commodities around the world is going up, by definition this cannot be due to a lack of competition - there must be something else at play."

If prices are going up there is a lack of capacity to supply, therefore there is insufficient supply which is why prices are going up - to eliminate demand.

At root the shortage of energy feeds into everything else.

There is no competition. No supplier gets a 'no deal' bid to their offer. They can sell everything they can make at the price they set.