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by carabiner 1325 days ago
This is kind of the purpose of the "50% chance of rain" things. The process is called calibration and is usually done with linear regression, and it means that in historical forecasts, the actual outcome was rain 50% of the time. Surface precip is notoriously hard to predict, so this is what we've got right now.
2 comments

But they should publish that... And then compare that figure to their competitors... To demonstrate to their users that their service is actually better, not just has a shinier UI...
Would be nice to have some extra error information. Like a probability for a number of mm precipitation buckets.