[altarius]

In my opinion, housing is mostly inelastic unless people have to sell due to external circumstances (like being unable to pay mortgage). I don't expect the housing market to decline more than 15-20%, as the more people are "underwater" from their purchase price, the more likely they're to just "wait out the slump". And with low interest rates locked in, many probably don't want to roll their mortgages now. Since we've had such a crazy runup [1] ([2]) in the past few years, a 20% decline still puts many sellers ahead, but I don't think they'd sell at a loss if prices dropped further. SF Case-Schiller is up 25-30% from 2020, and ~50% from 2017, for example.

My personal opinion is that once you've bought in you're locked in and along for the ride. If your house is down 20%, so is most likely the house you consider moving to. Unfortunately housing is often seen as an "investment".

[1] https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/US-Housing... [2]