[cmrdporcupine]

I'm sorry, but Russia, just like Canada, will not have increased crop yields from warming. It will (and does) have massive forest fires, drought, and erratic winters which swing from warm/hot to extreme cold within days.

You know what is even worse for farmers than a cold climate? An unpredictable one. It's damn hard to pull a profit farming if you can't rely on any kind of 'normal' growing conditions from year to year.

An increase in mean temperature isn't a neat and tidy "oh, we'll just move north"; it's on the whole an increase in variance.

I'm seeing it happen here in Canada, and I'm certain we'll see it in Siberia as well.

In the end, petro-regimes like Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Alberta, whatever... they'll become more and more paranoid and erratic and dysfunctional as the broader crisis around 'energy' deepens. We're right now seeing our first war triggered by a cornered petro-regime on the cusp of climate catastrophe. I suspect we'll see more.

[hkpack]

I quickly looked up the evidence and I think you are right.