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by comte7092 1337 days ago
To follow that up (so people know what they actually are), what p-values represent is the likelihood we would observe our data, given the null hypothesis.

Setting a cutoff of .05 is saying “if there’s less than a 5% chance we’d see this data, assuming the null hypothesis, then we can assume that the null hypothesis is false”

1 comments

But this statement only applies to a 'naive' (or first) statistical analysis or test on the dataset. Once the researcher starts changing their assumptions in response to the results they're seeing, they're p-hacking and p-values are no longer meaningful. In addition, once you have multiple researchers looking at the same dataset with different assumptions, and you factor in publication bias, the p-value also loses meaning.
Well, yes and no. The p-value still means the same thing, but when you take a dataset and go looking for any result that is under a certain threshold, you’ll probably find it. “Unlikely” events happen all the time!

What your comment is highlighting is an issue with bad experimental design. (And, obviously, with our publication regime)