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I wrote one of the big speculations and approximates. In real life, it is very much workload dependent, but the balance skews a lot more in favor of self-hosting (or cheap hosting companies) than IT leaders (used to) think.

I think the three best reasons to use the cloud are: (1) If you have a very bursty workload, (2) if you need compliance with specific government regulations that are expensive to certify, or (3) if your app is a hobby project or otherwise fits inside the free tier.

A lot of applications fit into one of these categories, and, anecdotally, people running them are very happy with the cloud. Most CRUD apps today do not fit into those categories.

I have also seen companies have a lot of success with hybrid cloud deployments, where they run a datacenter for their base load and scale out into the cloud when they need to do more work.