[dirtyid]

>Mr. Xi’s ambition, according to China’s most recent defense white paper, is to complete a modernization of the military by 2035 and turn it into a “world-class force” by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

With the speed of advancement in PLA rocketry and pursuing their version of prompt global strike, the timeline for PRC acquiring capabilities to negate US supremacy may be much shorter - PRC doesn't need to catch up with the US overall to successfully counter her.

IMO western analysis/MSM gets fixated/distracted by these white paper milestones for when PLA thinks they'll be a sufficiently modern/joint force across all domains, or when they'll reach parity with US in broad-spectrum capabilities (what world-class entails). 2035 is about basic modernization - develop + acquire some new hardware, get trained on them, integrate into new warfare concepts, improve jointness etc. 2049 is about acquiring major platforms in numbers to rival the US. But these are both relatively slow processes - building 10 carrier groups and crewing them takes a while even at PRC speed.

But standing up enough missile brigades protected in hardened bunkers that can destroy any US capital asset worldwide (including CONUS) that are fixed for at least 30 minutes? That can be done much faster. And by all accounts PLARocketForce has been growing rapidly in the last few years, with accompanying R&D news hinting at goals past PGS accompanied by 100+ tests per year (stupid amount).

ULtimately, PGS is not enough to enable PRC to do what she wants to do (take TW), but IMO it's sufficient to deter/counter US from doing or succeeding in what PRC doesn't want US to do (intervene on TW). Arguably the most important current consideration for PRC.