[emsign]

But the actual question is not how likely it is of those naturally occuring mutations (which also happen to be exactly like the commercial ones used for cutting genomes) to occur at the exact positions you would expect them to be in engineered genomes.

The real question is how probable it is if such a naturally mutated virus actually develops into a pandemic. First it has to spawn from nature and then it also has to be lucky enough to cause a pandemic.

You have to multiply those two probabilities as well. And only then you have a model that can be compared to what happened with the SARS-CoV-2, is it still that likely to be a natural spill over?