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by washedup
5301 days ago
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What you are describing is a Random Walk, 50/50 chance of going up or down, the previous data point holds no significance for the future. Mandelbrot discusses how this viewpoint is wrong in "Misbehavior of Markets" and describes market patterns using two movements: short trends and even shorter bursts. His multifactoral model uses these two ideas to model a market, however prediction is always difficult. |
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