[bendhoefs]

Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene.

They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.

[etempleton]

The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win.

I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and call it a victory or B. completely overestimate their chance of success.

I think China's real hope is that they can threaten their way to an advantageous position and take Taiwan without firing a bullet, but so far no one is blinking and the west is fed up with autocrats threatening warfare to get their way.

[ericmay]

NATO specifically doesn’t involve European partners in a war in the Pacific. Not to say some may or may not join the US in the fight.

[lmm]

> The United States has indicated that they would intervene,

The US has made multiple unclear statements. What one president may say, another may walk back or reverse. Or the US might simply not do what they said, or adopt some face-saving half-measure.

Killing US troops stationed in Japan, OTOH, would force a very strong response; even if the government wanted to deescalate, the public wouldn't let them.

[nordsieck]

> If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene.

That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene.

And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.

[ericmay]

“Taking” Taiwan with abrupt military force cannot be decoupled from a war with the entire west all at once. At least US, UK, SK, AUS, and others (unsure about EU involvement).