[throwaway4good]

Yes. The Biden admin is creating a two-front war with Russia and China.

I think a key to understanding their thinking is that they believe that the US is winning wrt. Ukraine. And having solidified European allies, now is the time to use that momentum and full-on confront China.

So you would end up with a broken Russia, a humiliated China, and another unipolar American moment like the 90es.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/12/biden-china-semiconduct...

Biden Is Now All-In on Taking Out China

The U.S. president has committed to rapid decoupling, whatever the consequences.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/opinion/china-semiconduct...

We Are Suddenly Taking On China and Russia at the Same Time

A battle over computer chips could have more long-term global impact than the Ukraine war.

[publicola1990]

Buy why and why now? Is there any significant change of circumstance w.r.t US-China relationships in the past 5 years which wasn't initiated by the US.

It all sounds a bit like Treaty of Versailles like clamp down from the US.

[_djo_]

The answer to that is Xi Jinping, and the way he has not only adopted a level of personal power not seen by any Chinese leader since Mao but has shifted China's domestic and foreign policy in a much more authoritarian direction. This has included cutting back on what foreign firms can do, substantially increasing the rhetoric against Taiwan and making clear plans to prepare for an invasion, cracking down on Hong Kong and reversing the 'one country two systems' promise, and taking actions against the Uyghur minority that are so extreme as to arguably be genocide, amongst other actions.

The West pretty universally believed in what the Germans called 'Wandel durch Handel', or change through trade, and the idea that China would become both wealthier and more liberal by becoming an ever more important player in global trade, and give up revanchist imperial ambitions like wanting to take over Taiwan. That has been shown to have been a false belief, as rather than moderating China became stronger and more authoritarian.

[publicola1990]

None of these seem a direct/targeted hostile act towards US. While many of these things are concerning, none of these seems like "crossing a red line" (for eg like USSR basing missiles in Cuba) as far as it relates to the US.

It rather more feels like a policy stemming from ideological preference from Biden and US policy makers.

Also has US expended all possible efforts to diffuse tensions and attempt rapprochment, because this policy seems like a one way steet.

This present measures do seem a unilateral targeted hostile measure from the US, not even considering the interests of the allies of US.

Atleast some of the other Asian nations wouldn't see things in such a black and white manner. Would South Korea, Singapore, even Japan think on the same stark lines as US on this?

[_djo_]

I didn’t go into all the ramifications, consequences, and threats to the global order that results from China’s change in direction under Xi, I only showed how Xi’s premiership has been a distinct change in direction for China than his recent predecessors.

From that and China’s own statements about its intentions you can determine why it’s seen as hostile by the US and Europe. For instance, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is absolutely a huge threat toward US and European interests, and would cause them substantial economic harm. Moreover if China were successful in it there’s also not much that would stop it from using military force to take over other countries in the region, because the justification would be as legally flimsy.

The post-war consensus against the use of force to conquer, annex, and swallow other countries has been extremely effective in preserving a level of global peace and allowed for a level of trade that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. It’s also arguably necessary in an age of nuclear weapons, where wars between major powers become unthinkable dangerous.

What Russia and to a much lesser extent China are doing, with regard to Ukraine and Taiwan respectively, is tearing up that post-war global order, returning the world to a might makes right system without much care given to international law, and therefore destabilising the world. I’d say those are reasons for Europe and the US to begin treating them as hostile and disengaging.

To be clear, none of this means the US or European countries are entirely blameless or saintly either. The US’s invasion of Iraq was wrong, possibly illegal, and cost them a huge amount of moral authority.

[publicola1990]

It is not clear if any well defined "red line" has been crossed. If it has not been, then this is a "pre-emptive" strike, which could be morally hazardous.

More than the cold war, US-China relationship is now looking more like US-Japan relations in years prior to world war 2. A wary US clamped down on access to resources to Japan, including oil, which denials could be seen as one of the reasons used to justify Japanese expansionism which lead to the war in Pacific which was extremely costly and tragic to all involved. Have US policy makers learnt the lessons of that conflict?

Is Taiwan a major concern for the US?. The status quo on Taiwan is also the result of US policy too, Taiwanese sovereignty is not something US has really stuck out their neck for.

[_djo_]

Doesn’t have to have been one specific red line.

Something else that’s being lost is that China has long had similar export restrictions on high technology items of strategic importance, including many items in biotech, AI, materials science, and medicine.

The comparison to US-Japan relations before WWII is not a good one. Relations soured after Japan invaded Manchuria and infamously massacred civilians in Nanjing. That was followed by Japan becoming part of the Tripartite Alliance, aka the Axis, with Nazi Germany and Mussolini’s fascist Italy in 1940 Even then, the US continued to supply oil while cutting back on some other goods.

It wasn’t until Japan invaded French Indochina in 1941, done partially as a way to prevent the US from continuing to support China, that the US embargoed oil exports to Japan. Notably, the Imperial Japanese Navy began seriously working on the plan to attack Pearl Harbor in January 1941, long before the oil embargo was in place. Japan was going to war whether that happened or not.

This chip technology embargo isn’t going to cause the same devastating impact for China as the 1941 oil embargo was for Japan.

And yes, Taiwan is a major concern for the US and for much of the rest of the world, because it houses so much of the world’s high technology semiconductor manufacturing. A war over the island would be devastating for global supply chains and the global economy as a result.

[jonnybgood]

> None of these seem a direct hostile act towards US.

They’re threats to the status quo. A threat to the status quo is a threat to US hegemonic power.

[swagasaurus-rex]

China does exactly this - restrict business and trade with USA. It’s time USA does the same

[namlem]

Hostility towards Taiwan is hostility towards the US. The US needs Taiwan to maintain its global naval hegemony. China currently has limited access to the Pacific. They have to sail through the waters of unfriendly countries to get their navy to open ocean.

[throwaway4good]

China is on a higher growth path than the US. So unless US confronts China about now, China will become too big too handle.

[namlem]

It was just before Xi was to give his address at the Communist Party Congress that takes place every 5 years.

[ericmay]

> Yes. The Biden admin is creating a two-front war with Russia and China.

It’s important to be clear here that this administration isn’t creating a two-front “war” or conflict with Russia and China but responding to egregious activities by both parties.

It should also be noted that all of these moves have wide bipartisan support. Something like 99-1 senate votes and the like. Trump, a Republican, campaigned on being tough on China after the Obama administration and enacted punitive trade tariffs and the like. Republicans and Democrats campaign in states like Ohio where manufacturing was hollowed out that they’ll “be tough on China”.

Western countries (Germany - Russia, U.S. - China) spent decades trying to open markets and provided peaceful dialog between countries while managing sore spots without conflict. Russia chose to invade Ukraine and disrupt emergent markets. China chose to become a dictatorship and engage in hard-line international policies.

It’s important to remember this less as the US and western allies decoupling and more so responding to a decoupling that already occurred lead by both Putin and Jinping. You can know that this is the case because both leaders tell you that this is the case in their “rejection of the international order” or “American lead order” or similar rhetoric.