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by WastingMyTime89 1341 days ago
> It’s not a collision estimation tool.

It’s a comment about how full it is, not about how likely things are to collide and a reply to a previous comment.

> Now keep rolling those dice every day for hundreds of years. Thousands of dice, for thousands of objects.

Still low.

Orbits between 700km and 800km are mostly lost after the past two decade antisatellites tests. Lower orbits clean fast especially the ones used by the recent large satellites fleet and space above 800km is mostly empty apart from the band with large USSR boosters which is easy to avoid.

Risk is not very high. It is managed adequately and the legislation is properly anticipating current developments.

It’s important to remember that space is extremely large and we are talking about thousands of things. Having too much debris clustered in a small range of altitude makes it not economically viable to operate there but it doesn’t prevent us from going through at all.
1 comments
schiffern 1341 days ago
>It’s a comment about how full it is

Why is that "scary," though?

It's not like "running out of room" is a plausible risk. Kessler Syndrome limits you long before that.

>Risk is not very high. It is managed adequately and the legislation is properly anticipating current developments

See my edit to parent, and watch the video (especially the future simulations). The situation is far from "managed adequately" IMO.

This has been fun, and I sense we're starting to go in circles (no pun intended). My upvotes, for being such a good sport. Cheers!

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tshaddox 1341 days ago
> Why is that "scary," though? It's not like "running out of room" is a plausible risk. Kessler Syndrome limits you long before that.

Seems like we’re going in circles here. Kessler syndrome is about collisions. But one can be concerned about the fullness of a medium without the risk of collisions being the primary concern. This is the case for everyday things like road traffic, restaurant lines, etc.

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schiffern 1337 days ago
>Seems like we’re going in circles here.

That's what I said...

>This is the case for everyday things like road traffic, restaurant lines, etc.

Bad analogy. The "fullness" of space behaves in a way that's precisely unlike those 'common sense' scenarios.

Collisions are the limiting factor in this domain. If you're not considering collisions, you're not accurately capturing the idea of "fullness."

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