[brudgers]

Experience have given me an intuition of what incomplete information feels like.

And the expectation that the future always involves change...this is information I am always missing. I think about my estimate on two time scales, wall clock time and calendar time. Clock time is the resources I will need to commit. Calendar time is the external dependencies.

But, all that said, the only way to get the experience for having intuition is by estimating.

And basically, your choice (and mine) is to come up with something that might be wrong after a long arduous process or come up with something that might be wrong quickly.

Quickly provides empirical feedback faster.

Good luck.