[mjthrowaway1]

“Consumer prices in the US were up 0.4% month-over-month in September of 2022, the highest reading in three months, and twice the market expectation of 0.2%. Increases in prices of shelter (0.7%), food (0.4%), and medical care services (1%) were the largest of many contributors to the increase.”

Doesn’t seem all that much rosier to have 0.4% MoM with interest rates where they are and GDP declining.

[the_gastropod]

Those are the "raw" CPI numbers. Core CPI excludes food / energy since those tend to be quite volatile. Raw CPI is still quite high. Core CPI, which is generally regarded as a better predictor for long-term trends, is looking pretty good.

[spaceman_2020]

How is core CPI “looking good”? It was 5.9% in July, 6.3% in August, 6.6% in September.

That’s the opposite of “looking good”.

[colinmhayes]

You're quoting backward looking numbers, not forward looking ones which is the entire point of this post. If core went up 6% in january and 0 since then you could say the same thing, but no one would think it's a problem.

[spaceman_2020]

I'm not sure I follow. The trend is clearly on the up month-over-month, not down or flat. Is there any other way to infer this?

Genuinely curious.