Interesting article, I've got a few thoughts on this space.
Endless West (https://endlesswest.com/) has a "molecular whisky" (they aren't legally allowed to call it whisky because it wasn't distilled from a certain mash, aged in oak for a minimum number of years, etc. etc.) that's the same idea, minus the machine learning (which probably isn't that helpful, IMO [1]). More on the process in [2].
To my knowledge, it hasn't sold particularly well, and most reviews (granted, likely biased by the origin of the spirit) tend to say "it's fine, but it's not the same as 'real whisky'."
The issue with the "luxury spirits" market is that (to paraphrase the Scotch distillery Bruichladdich), "terrior matters". Like fine art, one's enjoyment of such a beverage comes from both the tangible (taste, smell, bottle presentation, etc.) and the intangible ("having good taste", "buying a bottle of whisky older than you are"; generally signaling value). Like most (all?) luxury goods, the tangible costs account for a small percentage of the overall cost, with the intangibles and associated signaling value.
There's a reason that "The Macallan" which is marketed as such costs significantly more than vs "the macallan" that's been private labeled by Costco or Trader Joe's. Same juice, different intangibles.
All of this is to say that:
- I think the technology is super cool and I want to see it come to fruition
- I don't think "luxury goods" is the right segment to target because nobody buys a birkin bag to carry their laptop to work
- Create a novelty for mass affluent consumers; not super high margin but make up for it in volume (what Glyph was attempting)
- Target a niche consumer group who cares about a different signaling metric, e.g. eco conscious consumers who want the same "end resuly" but are unhappy with traditional processes (which is what Endless West seems to be doing with e.g. [3])
[1]: Cognitive Cooking with Chef Watson (https://ice.edu/partner-with-ice/IBM) is a great cookbook because chefs fed IBM Watson a bunch of recipes and then asked it to create new recipes, which it did, with some _very_ wacky results that chefs then tweaked. Definitely possible to create new/unique/interesting things, but I think it's hard to get people to buy into the end result, especially if the majority of folks would initially reject it as disgusting/too weird.
Short answer is likely "yes" though I think there's a surprising amount of variation even there.
Longer answer is that I'm not sure the direct comparison ever really happens because in a spirits tasting competition where there would be double blind testings, it's never pitted against the whiskies it's being "marketed against" (e.g. a "real" bourbon or scotch). Sip 2021 puts it in "other whiskies" in which it gets the lowest awarded medal: https://sipawards.com/content/results/sipawards2021results.p... (though interestingly in 2022, Spice, their "scotch" blend, won double gold in the same category: https://sipawards.com/content/results/sipawards2022results.p...).
You can't sell to people buying Macallan 12, you have to sell to people who _don't_ currently buy Macallan 12 because $REASONS (significant price difference, ESG angles like lower carbon footprint, they can't get it in their location, etc.).
Same. I keep a bottle of Blue Label that I refill with Green/Gold/Platinum (depending on how generous I'm feeling) that gets served to guests who visit my home bar and ask for Blue Label because they know nothing about scotch except that it's expensive. I actually think those colors are better than Blue, but that's neither here nor there...
My personal trend over the past few years has been to buy from independent bottlers, of which Costco/TJ usually carry (e.g. Alexander Murray). I've also switched to other beverages: armagnac, mezcal, rum; all of which have lower brand recognition and interest here. Overall it means I can get more variety (and value) at a better price, which is a win.
Endless West (https://endlesswest.com/) has a "molecular whisky" (they aren't legally allowed to call it whisky because it wasn't distilled from a certain mash, aged in oak for a minimum number of years, etc. etc.) that's the same idea, minus the machine learning (which probably isn't that helpful, IMO [1]). More on the process in [2].
To my knowledge, it hasn't sold particularly well, and most reviews (granted, likely biased by the origin of the spirit) tend to say "it's fine, but it's not the same as 'real whisky'."
The issue with the "luxury spirits" market is that (to paraphrase the Scotch distillery Bruichladdich), "terrior matters". Like fine art, one's enjoyment of such a beverage comes from both the tangible (taste, smell, bottle presentation, etc.) and the intangible ("having good taste", "buying a bottle of whisky older than you are"; generally signaling value). Like most (all?) luxury goods, the tangible costs account for a small percentage of the overall cost, with the intangibles and associated signaling value.
There's a reason that "The Macallan" which is marketed as such costs significantly more than vs "the macallan" that's been private labeled by Costco or Trader Joe's. Same juice, different intangibles.
All of this is to say that:
- I think the technology is super cool and I want to see it come to fruition
- I don't think "luxury goods" is the right segment to target because nobody buys a birkin bag to carry their laptop to work
[1]: Cognitive Cooking with Chef Watson (https://ice.edu/partner-with-ice/IBM) is a great cookbook because chefs fed IBM Watson a bunch of recipes and then asked it to create new recipes, which it did, with some _very_ wacky results that chefs then tweaked. Definitely possible to create new/unique/interesting things, but I think it's hard to get people to buy into the end result, especially if the majority of folks would initially reject it as disgusting/too weird.[2]: https://fortune.com/2019/05/25/endless-west-glyph-engineered...
[3]: https://shop.endlesswest.com/kazoku.html