| I don't know this author and I don't know where they pulled these numbers from. It comes across as "Strategic Nuclear War Planning for Dummies." - Ukraine isn't in NATO and won't get in before this war concludes with Putin losing. No NATO, no automatic aid, and no WW3. - The US is outspending Russia's entire defense budget by orders-of-magnitude with HIMARS for Ukraine (artillery: the god of war). It's only a matter of time before Putin's military refuses to take orders. - Putin's generals would sooner remove him that start WW3 beyond a few tac nukes. - Tac nukes aren't going to start WW3 except push Russia further beyond DPRK pariah status. Lots of fallout, lots of people will need to move out of the way in a hurry depending on the winds, but brinksmanship escalation by the West would be suicidal/omnicidal. - Putin is seeking a 1989 do-over and resentment over Afghanistan, but it's going to follow a similar result. Putin is, in recent years, doing the same thing and expecting a different result. - Putin likely has cancer since an oncologist has been following him around. - It's plain to read the nonverbal communication of Putin's inner circle whenever they appear on camera: they're wondering how they can get rid of him. Putin's altered mental state is somewhere between 'roid-rage, low T grouchy old man, and cabin fever from living in a bunker in the Urals separated from society for too long. Unstable crazy person with nukes. The likelihood Putin will be arrested or assassinated when he tries to order a nuclear strike seems the most likely conclusion. Further reading: Ellsberg's thesis in book form: "Risk, Ambiguity, and Decision". |
As much as it would be nice if it were the case, this is extremely nebulous and more likely just projection/wishful thinking.