[roenxi]

Sure, but my concerns with that:

1. The US has put sufficient weapons in the heartland of what used to be the USSR that Moscow is having difficulty keeping troops & friendly administrators in power in Eastern Ukraine. Is it realistic that they are going to try to responsible and peaceful approach a 2nd time? It didn't work last time. The Russians might have noticed. I'm not sure I trust the propaganda that Putin is the only one driving their behaviour.

The US has made the peaceful approach look stupid in hindsight. This time they might try a pufferfish-style escalate-into-nukes to try and get the US to back off sending weapons to their enemies. Otherwise where is the line where the US stops pushing forward? Which could realistically doom us all, I hope nobody misjudges in this tense and terrifying situation.

2. War is very chaotic. Things happen that nobody expects, individuals make irrational decisions, people mis-judge the capabilities of entire populations of other people. Realistically, the US doesn't have the power to engineer this outcome. It is rolling dice.

3. Toppling governments routinely leads to the next government being less stable and rational than the last one. It isn't like toppling a government leads to a sudden tradition of stable government.

I don't think it is likely that this happens or that it prevents nukes being launched. Maybe add in a 20% "other" category somewhere on the diagram. Hardly comforting.