| There is no evidence Russia has a large inventory of useful standoff munitions. For example, Russian has been making extensive usage of s-300 surface to air missiles in ground to ground mode. While this capability was considered during design, it's an act of desperation. SAM's are mostly propellent with a small warhead. (The point is to catch up quickly with a delicate fast moving object and frag it to shreds). The s-300 is pretty inaccurate in this role and is mostly useful as a terror weapon. (They are fast and hard to counter). Additional, they have been repurposing air to ship missiles (kh-22's), which are notoriously inaccurate. The high causality shopping mall incident in late June was a kh-22 likely attempting to hit a nearby factory. All said, there is no evidence that Russia has any surplus of tactical weapons. Estimates that up to 70% of dedicated LACM weapons have been expended already. Alternatively perhaps you mean tube artillery and unguided MLRS systems like the Grads? That is precisely how they battle. Artillery grinds down everything into rubble and infantry moves forward a few kilometers - rinse and repeat. Ukraine has blunted this tactic by pressuring artillery supply with HIMARS, partisans and drone delivered munitions. Now the big question is if Russia will use a tactical nuke as an area denial weapon. Russian troops have limited capacity to operate in a radiological environment, and NATO repercussions would be monumental. Personally I believe a tactical nuke would bring us to the edge of a thermonuclear war. Here's how I see it playing out; Russia drops a small dial-a-yield outside Kherson to deter Ukrainian advance. NATO attacks the Black Sea fleet and starts to provide air cover over Western Ukraine. Poland moves "peace keeping" troops along the Russian/Ukraine border. Rus/NATO incidents start to occur, triggering an escalatory spiral. Once you've used a tactical nuke once, it's easier the second and third and fourth time. NATO article 5 is invoked after food supplies are poisoned from fallout. Russia's conventional forces are totally depleted, leaving only the strategic air force and nuclear triad left as a response to NATO. Putin deep inside his nuclear bunker, isolated from outside contact, makes a decision. ... |