[simonh]

True that food and energy security are primary concerns for India and China. Does Russia detonating nukes in Ukraine improve or harm food and energy security? Especially if the west interdict Russian trade in response, as they have with North Korea. The answer to that will shape the response of these governments.

[dirtyid]

Will west escalate to interdicting Indian and Chinese flagged vessels used to circumvent embargo to bring home even more discounted fuel and food? Because ultimately that's what directly harms the food and energy security of these two other nuclear powers. At the end of the day RU isn't the one disrupting their bilateral trade with "friendly" partners. The real question is how will west make it worthwhile not to trade with RU, and so far it's been mostly sticks instead of carrots which is unlikely to work when it comes to fertilizer and fuel.

[simonh]

India and china do not benefit from turning a blind eye to active use of nuclear weapons for military or blackmail purposes. Remember that both India and Pakistan have a few nukes each. It's absolutely against India's interests to accept the principle that military use of nuclear weapons, or threat of their actual use, is acceptable internationally.