I'll do it when I can just tell the computer to do it - maybe 2024
It will be interesting to rewatch movies with all the faces blanked out - they're eye-magnets that prevent you from noticing other details, for example in body language
Besides the fact that GPS already exists, it seems like it would take longer (~20 years) than the 5 years claimed to detect birds.
> The GPS project was started by the U.S. Department of Defense in 1973. The first prototype spacecraft was launched in 1978 and the full constellation of 24 satellites became operational in 1993
Never forget to read the alt-text joke on an XCKD comic. The punchline on this one is based in some truth.
> In the 60s, Marvin Minsky assigned a couple of undergrads to spend the summer programming a computer to use a camera to identify objects in a scene. He figured they'd have the problem solved by the end of the summer. Half a century later, we're still working on it.
What's really incredible to me is how right the prediction was, but also that it was real. In 2014, classifying images as "containing a bird" was a nigh-on-impossible task. Not an impossible one, and image classification was already in production use in limited forms with mapping agencies and the like, but beyond anyone's capability at the time. In 2017, Not Hotdog was a novelty app - Image classification was real, but limited, and didn't have a great reputation yet. By 2019, papers[1] were being written on image classification as a service and where their pitfalls were, but the idea was solid and sound; Today in 2022, it's something you'd have to research and test before buying for your startup but not a hard product to find.
I am halfway convinced that the singularity has already occurred and has been ongoing from the 1700's* however, being carried along with it, you can't see it directly, you can only dimly sense it's tidal pull.
It is like a black hole. how long does it take to fall into a black hole? the answer is a surprising "just about forever" due to time itself dilating as you approach the center.
* think about it, mankind had been trundling about with effectively the same economy for many thousands of years then at some point about three hundred years ago it went exponential and has not slowed down.
It will be interesting to rewatch movies with all the faces blanked out - they're eye-magnets that prevent you from noticing other details, for example in body language