[argsv]

You’re assuming that leaders of these countries are largely benevolent. They’re optimizing for their own interests. Bringing manufacturing into these countries will only introduce new competitors to their rule over time. Think of Saudi for instance, they can bring manufacturing and they import workforce if necessary from India , Africa, Asia and Europe but they won’t. They’re happy with the oil sector because that’s easy to control.

[dmix]

What's the difference between China, India, and the early western country vs these countries then? Why is this unique to a limited subset who have the potential become a big player in manufacturing?

Nigeria is projected to have a population in the top 3 (china, india, then nigeria) in the next 30yrs. The population excuse will soon not be good enough anymore.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/08/12/fg-by-2050-...

A strong culture of corruption and self-interested politicians is pretty common but I feel like there's some lack of proper messaging or a lack of simple interest in having big goals. There seems to be a defeatist culture in many of these places, where they are so used to the status quo they forget they still have a choice if enough people cared.

Maybe brain drain is the true killer in our global economy. The smart kids don't even bother, they just move to the west or help India/China.

[AnAfrican]

>What's the difference between China, India, and the early western country vs these countries then? Why is this unique to a limited subset who have the potential become a big player in manufacturing?

Mostly revenues from natural ressources. Rents allows much more centralized control of the political and economical equilibrium in the country. And it's easier to manage.

Despotic regimes that industrialize (like China or Vietnam) usually do it out of necessity : either because they can't make enough out of natural ressources to provide sufficiently to their subjects or because they need to have some level of strategic independence.

But they do see a dynamic economy as a threat.

[esperent]

The leaders of Vietnam are - well, it's complicated and there's a lot of corruption and weird cultural stuff to overcome. I don't mean Vietnamese cultural stuff, I mean the culture of the Vietnamese government.

But somewhere behind that I do believe they have a vision for the country. I have lived here for 5 years now and I see a country going though a rapid transition from extreme poverty (just 20-30 years ago) to now, in places like Da Nang, Quy Nhon, Dalat, parts of HCMC and Hanoi, being fairly developed and rapidly becoming more so. Apparently they have lifted a million people per year out of extreme poverty for the last 30 years and there's a rapidly growing middle class too.

Of course, from those areas, you can just drive 50km (or even just down a side street in a big city) and be in an area that seems like it hasn't been touched by development, although you can still probably get a 200mb internet connection in these places. And there are entire provinces that are still very poor. It's a big and complicated country on a winding but largely positive trajectory. Don't dismiss the leaders here in the same breathe as the Saudis. They have their own highly complex and developed culture, with both good and bad sides, and you need to take the time to understand it before you can comment on it.

If I was in industry, I would bet on this country as being a good place for manufacturing. Right now, for low-medium tech stuff. But in ten or twenty years I predict this country will be a high tech manufacturing hub.

[gregw2]

I have affection for your affection for Vietnam.

My fear is that while wealth has increased greatly in Vietnam, it has dragged along with it major shifts in motivation (greed) and happiness (materialism) and a reduced value of community… a shift that, (cynically on my part), may be more in the leaders interest than in the peoples. Ah capitalism.

But this is not just an issue with Vietnam, it can be true in any country… just more visible amidst the transition that I saw a small small bit of in the early 2000s there.

Is the transition “good” in an ultimate sense? I (with you) hope so… but my gut says otherwise. Do the weeds grow faster than the grass when fertilizer is thrown down? We’ll see. All the best to you.

(I agree with your core point that from a western perspective, high tech manufacturing in Vietnam likely makes good sense as a China diversification play.)