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by mywittyname 1357 days ago
Which points to why the whole "two consecutive quarters" rule is not, and should not be, definitive. The country could see a 50% collapse in a single quarter and see 2-3% growth each quarter for years, and not be in a recession by that definition.

It wouldn't be unusual for a major economic calamity to occur within a single quarter. Both Covid lock downs and the collapse of AIG/LB happened within a matter of weeks.
1 comments
OJFord 1356 days ago
> The country could see a 50% collapse in a single quarter and see 2-3% growth each quarter for years, and not be in a recession by that definition.

But that's not receding, that's has receded.

If your implied definition is slipping below the growth trend, then any '50% collapse' is going to ensure 'recession' (by this definition) for probably (or even hopefully) a long time.

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mywittyname 1356 days ago
> But that's not receding, that's has receded.

A recession is past tense. One can speculate that we are in a recession, but it's not feasible to collect all the information necessary to make that determination in real time. The best one can do is say, "a recession started six months ago, and I think the situation is better/the same/worse."

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OJFord 1356 days ago
Yes but 'has receded' is present perfect. My point was that the situation described was that of a time after a recession that had ended.
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