[blacksmythe]

  >> There's a lot of talented and hardworking people here, like you, not as lucky tho.

Not denying a significant random component to success, but success does not seem to follow a random distribution.

If given a choice between picking someone coming off a big success, or someone who looks equally smart but was only moderately successful, many would choose to bet on the person who was successful last time.

[kls]

The initial success though given all parts being equal is just as random, so you still have the same odds starting out. It's the same concept as what Buffett calls the *Lucky sperm club". His concept was just applied in the other direction, being born into success.