[tluyben2]

> You'll mostly find cynicism.

There is a lot of optimism here that is misplaced actually. Many people here believe we will do things soon with ai and medicine etc that won’t be possible for a very long time, but there we go. I find it refreshing to have the cynical views instead of the dreamy eyed ‘oh Elon’ stare. The guy has a reality distortion lens, but not like steve jobs; Elon seems to actually believe that the endgoal already exists in the products he is selling or building now.

It’s a take I know well from software development; we started something basic, ‘a few steps’ are needed and then we have a revolutionary product so we talk about the last part only (aka Vaporware) as if it’s real. The team actually believes it like it already happened or will happen any second, even though the development will take years still. It is very dangerous in a lot of situation, especially when it is not actually known if it’s possible at all in the current setting (like fully autonomous cars).

[mise_en_place]

It’s easy to predict things with the benefit of hindsight. Not very useful though. I’m willing to make the prediction that Elon will succeed in the consumer robotics space where others have failed. The exact time it will take is largely irrelevant. Tesla has the vertical integration to eventually make a consumer robot.

[microtherion]

> Tesla has the vertical integration to eventually make a consumer robot.

As in "management unscrupulous enough to release an overpriced, unsafe, half baked product and adoring followers gullible enough to pay for it".

In that sense, they truly ARE "leveraging their FSD expertise in a new product space".

[hndamien]

Also, for the record, my bet is that Tesla will succeed with the first mass produced useful humanoid robot.